Accurate recording of Long-COVID numbers is difficult because not all affected individuals contact an official agency, or they may struggle in silence with their symptoms. It is estimated that 10 to 20 percent of individuals diagnosed with a Covid infection suffer various medium- to long-term effects, depending on the variant of the virus. These figures are also assumed to apply in Switzerland.
Because of these numbers, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the United States has conducted modeling of Long COVID figures for Europe and the world. It is important to note that modeling does not represent true numbers, but rather an estimate. IHME Director Christopher Murray summarizes the key points in a YouTube video.
A “staggering” increase of 307%
This modeling shows that at least 17 million people in all 53 Member States in the WHO European Region have or have had Long COVID. Worldwide, nearly 145 million people were affected by one of the three symptom clusters (see infobox) during the first two years of the pandemic.
This represents a 307% increase from the end of 2020, when Covid caseloads began to rise, and throughout 2021.
A preprint in the preprint in the British Medical Journal based on the same modeling offers a ray of hope, showing that only about 15 percent have not fully recovered 12 months after infection. So, for the majority of those affected, the symptoms go away. Nevertheless, the proportion of those who suffer in the longer term is considerable, given the number of infections.
Increased risk for women and during severe cases
According to the IHME's estimates, women are twice as likely to develop Long COVID as men. It is also shown that severe cases of Covid with hospitalization dramatically increases the risk of Long COVID. One in three women and one in five men suffer long-term consequences of COVID-19 after hospitalization. No reliable figures are yet available on how the disease manifests in vaccinated versus unvaccinated populations and the impact of the disease on reinfections.
Countries are urged to invest in research, recovery and rehabilitation of Long COVID.
Common goals of the WHO and Long COVID Europe
For the WHO, it is clear that governments and health care partners must join together to find solutions based on research and evidence.
Therefore, the WHO, together with Long COVID Europe, has defined three goals (3 Rs):
- Recognition and increased knowledge sharing
- Research and reporting through data gathering and reporting of cases, and well-coordinated research.
- Rehabilitation that is based on evidence and effectiveness
Knowing how many people are affected and for how long is important for health systems and government agencies to develop rehabilitative and support services.”
Click here to read the full statement from the WHO.
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