Figures from the COVID-19 monitoring carried out by the Swiss Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) make for interesting reading: since the start of the year, there have been 901 Invalidity Insurance (AI/IV) applications associated with Long COVID.
In accordance with the guidelines of the AI/IV office conference, the FSIO recorded those people “who, according to their handling physician, are suffering from immediate long-term health consequences with significant functional restrictions following a COVID-19 infection.” The 901 recorded cases correspond to 3.6% of all first-time applications from January to June 2021.
The unresolved question of categorization
How should this statistic be interpreted? FSIO Vice Director Stefan Ritler explains Article in “Echo der Zeit”: “This three percent essentially constitutes a level of growth that has also been seen by the AI/IV office in other years.” According to a report by SRF, AI/IV applications due to Long COVID were therefore within a normal fluctuation range.
Admittedly, this report is based on figures from January to May. Over this period, 3.1% of all first-time applications were from people suffering from long-term effects following a COVID-19 infection. The figures for June are now available as well, taking the average percentage for the first half of the year to 3.6%.
The increase over the course of the year is striking.
What the figure of 3.6% does not show is the fascinating increase over the course of the year. This can be seen in the charts published by the FSIO:
January: 0.5 % of first-time applications due to Long COVID (17 cases)
February: 0.6 % of first-time applications (26 cases)
March: 3.5 % of first-time applications (170 cases)
April: 4.3 % of first-time applications (178 cases)
May: 6.4 % of first-time applications (263 cases)
June: 6.2 % of first-time applications (247 cases)
These figures are illustrated by a graphic published by the AI/IV office conference:
Number of detected Long COVID cases as a percentage of all AI/IV applications in 2021 (January-June).
As with all statistics, it is important to analyze these figures closely and to interpret them with care. It should be assumed that the actual increase in cases is less steep and that the curve shown above might be exaggerating the development. To put things into perspective, it is important to consider points such as the following:
- The recording of data began in April 2021 and applied retroactively to cases from January. It is therefore conceivable that past cases were recorded less accurately than current cases.
- The figures may be subject to a catch-up effect: Due to the increased awareness of Long COVID, Long COVID was possibly only recognized or registered as the cause of pre-existing cases retroactively, which could now lead to a build-up of pre-existing and new cases. In accordance with the guidelines of the AI/IV office conference, the “case detection” date is recorded, and not the date of the AI/IV application.
- Finally, it’s important to consider that an application to the AI/IV office is not the same as actually receiving benefits or having a disability. For legal reasons, it is recommended to apply for AI/IV in good time. It is quite possible that some people who have applied (as a precautionary measure) will recover after a few months and will not require any benefits.
Long COVID is being noticeably reflected in applications for invalidity insurance.
It is still too early to come to any clear conclusions. In terms of the catch-up effect, FSIO spokesperson Sabrina Gasser had the following to say: “Looking at how the figures registered by the AI/IV progress from month to month does not allow us to draw any conclusions regarding the progression of new Long COVID cases in general.” Or in other words: it is not necessarily the case that more people have suddenly been suffering from Long COVID since March than before. However, the monitoring by the FSIO means that the long-term consequences of COVID-19 are now quantifiable in the social security system.
The FSIO plans to continue its monitoring until the end of the year to get a better idea of the impacts of the pandemic on the AI/IV office.
Long COVID will probably lead to a long-term strain on the healthcare system.
But even with an optimistic outlook and taking all of the relative factors into account: Long COVID is being quantifiably reflected in applications for disability insurance. Since the start of the systematic data recording in April, the percentage of people with Long COVID has been well above 3% and therefore above the fluctuation range mentioned above.
It remains to be seen how the figures will develop over the coming months and how many of those who have applied for AI/IV will actually require any benefits. Overall, however, the figures from the COVID-19 monitoring carried out by the FSIO do seem to confirm the findings of the report on the state of research published on the FOPH Website (07.06.2021): that Long COVID will probably lead to a long-term strain on the economy and the healthcare system.
